Iranian jets allegedly strike US bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage

Iranian fighter jets allegedly struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage. The Iran military action by April 30 market now sits at 100% YES.

Market reaction

Every sub-market within the Iran military action against specified countries by April 30 contract is at 100% YES, meaning traders see no remaining uncertainty about Iranian strikes before the deadline. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market ticked up to 8.5% YES from 8% yesterday.

The UK military action against Iran by April 30 market remains at 0.9% YES. Only $33 in actual USDC traded in that market over the last 24 hours, which points to near-zero trader interest in an imminent UK strike.

Why it matters

Confirmed Iranian attacks on U.S. bases make further military engagements more likely. The regime fall market at 8.5% YES shows some traders pricing in increased instability, but the number is still low enough to indicate most see the regime surviving through June. Buying YES at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime dissolves by June 30, a 11.8x return.

What to watch

The Pentagon’s response and any shifts in regional alliances could move these odds quickly. CENTCOM statements or announcements of retaliatory operations are the most likely catalysts.

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