Oil prices rocketed to multi-week peaks as the war in the Middle East is nowhere near a decisive conclusion. It was another eventful week, mostly focused on the developments in the Middle East, which continue to intensify and impact numerous assets’ price moves, including bitcoin and oil. Before and after our Market Update from
Coinglass’ Bitcoin liquidation map shows a $1.143b long wall below $65k and a $754m short pocket above $68k, turning a small move into a potential $1.9b forced‑flow event. Summary Coinglass data indicates that if Bitcoin drops below $65,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges reaches an estimated $1.143 billion. If BTC instead breaks
U.S. helicopters are refueling mid-air over Iran during a search and rescue operation. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 66% YES, up from 61% a day ago. This refueling shows increased military activity in hostile airspace. The April 30 market rose 5.5 points, indicating traders see a higher chance of
A steep decline in XRP activity on Binance pointed to a fading short-term interest. Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, crypto markets have remained volatile in the short term but directionless overall. Several major assets, including XRP, have moved sideways during this period. At the same time, XRP transaction activity on Binance
Google has introduced Gemma 4, its latest open artificial intelligence model family focused on advanced reasoning and agent-style workflows. Summary Google launches Gemma 4, its latest open AI model family focused on advanced reasoning and agent-style workflows. The model is available in four sizes, ranging from edge-device variants to high-performance systems, and supports over 140
Bitfinex supports El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption, boosting sentiment for the cryptocurrency’s long-term use. Odds for Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by June 30 remain undefined. Bitfinex’s backing aligns with El Salvador’s strategy to increase Bitcoin reserves, despite international financial pressures like the 2024 IMF loan agreement. This support adds optimism but isn’t a major market mover. The
The end of the week is here again, which means another batch of crypto options contracts is expiring as spot markets continue to retreat again. Around 27,600 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, April 3, with a notional value of roughly $1.8 billion. This event is smaller than usual, so it is unlikely
Polymarket has partnered with oracle provider Pyth Network to launch traditional asset markets on its platform. Summary Polymarket partnered with Pyth Network to introduce equity, commodity, and stock-linked contracts. The new markets include daily up or down and closing price contracts that reset at the end of each trading session. Pyth Network is providing real-time
The U.S. has informed Israel that negotiations with Iran have hit a deadlock. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 8% just yesterday. Later markets show sharper declines. The April 15 ceasefire odds fell to 8% YES from 18%. The April 30 market dropped to 24% YES
The ALT/BTC chart has printed four consecutive green MACD bars for the first time in nearly 6 years, according to popular analyst Ash Crypto. The last time this happened, there was a 60% altcoin outperformance against Bitcoin over the three months that followed. Three Signals Converging In an April 2 post on X, Ash Crypto