Ali Khamenei has been dead for 50 days, with Iran unable to bury him. The regime’s uncertain grasp on power is reflected in the odds for its fall by May 31, which sit at 3% YES. Market reaction The market for the Iranian regime’s fall shows limited movement, with odds unchanged from 24 hours ago.
Recent on-chain data shows a sharp rise in Bitcoin (BTC) movement to exchanges. Summary Binance inflow CDD spike suggests long-term Bitcoin holders moving funds to exchanges for profit-taking. NUPL indicator rise signals improving sentiment and growing unrealized profits among Bitcoin investors. Bitcoin Composite Index remains above 1.0, indicating no confirmed market bottom formation yet. On
UK Chief Rabbi warns of increasing antisemitic attacks in London linked to Iranian proxies. Israel military action against Iran by April 21 sits at 9.4% YES. The market for Israeli military action against Iran jumped to 9.4% YES, up from 4% yesterday. This followed news of antisemitic arson attacks in London potentially linked to Iranian
Roughly $1 billion went into the spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, but what’s next? The overall investor sentiment improvement over the past 10 days or so, after the ceasefire between the US and Iran was announced, has materialized in terms of more profound ETF net inflows for the funds tracking some of the largest
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded their strongest weekly inflows in several months. Summary Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion inflows, marking strongest weekly performance since mid-January period. Ethereum and XRP ETFs followed with steady inflows, reflecting renewed investor interest across crypto markets. Rising ETF demand coincides with improved sentiment but ongoing geopolitical uncertainty still
Vice President JD Vance, alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will attend talks with Iran in Islamabad, according to a White House official. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 20% YES. The participation of high-level US officials has pushed the June 30 diplomatic meeting market for “no qualifying
Is Pi Network as advanced as the team claimed? It has been over a year since the official launch of Pi Network, but more than half a decade since the project started attracting users. Within this timeframe, its community, known as Pioneers, has grown into the millions, the team said, and recently outlined why
Peter Schiff, a well-known Bitcoin critic and gold advocate, has raised concerns about MicroStrategy’s ongoing Bitcoin acquisition strategy. Summary Peter Schiff says MicroStrategy Bitcoin funding model may increase shareholder dilution through repeated share issuance. Company shifts toward 11.5% yield preferred shares as earlier funding methods become less effective. Debate continues as analysts disagree whether MicroStrategy
Iranian gunboats and IRGC radio warnings have deterred commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 to 0.4% YES, up from 0% yesterday. The market for fewer than 10 ships by April 19 saw a modest 2-point spike early this morning but
Instead of freezing coins early, BitMEX Research suggests waiting for proof, which can be done by using a special address to trigger a freeze if a quantum computer is proven to exist. A new proposal suggests a mechanism that would trigger a freeze only on quantum-vulnerable coins if a computer of that type is