Senate Banking Committee to vote on Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair April 29

The Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on April 29. Odds for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 have climbed to 92% YES, up from 29% just a day ago.

The jump follows Senator Thom Tillis announcing his support for Warsh after the Department of Justice closed its investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The May 1 market for Warsh’s confirmation sits at 3% YES, given the narrow timeframe. The June 30 market is at 98% YES, showing strong confidence in eventual confirmation.

Trading volume tells the story: $17,756 in USDC traded in the May 15 market over the last 24 hours. The term structure shows an 89-point jump from May 1 to May 15, which means traders expect a confirmation catalyst in early May. Order book depth of $1,590 to move 5 points on May 15 indicates solid liquidity.

Tillis’s support removes a major obstacle to confirmation. At 92¢, a YES share pays $1 if confirmed by May 15, a 1.09x return. Traders betting on confirmation by May 1 face higher risk for a 33x payout due to the low odds.

Watch for the Senate Banking Committee vote on April 29 and any statements from key Democratic senators. Both will shape the confirmation timeline.

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