Trump retweeted a column suggesting he doesn’t need a deal with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at
Market reaction
The retweet sent a clear signal to traders that Trump isn’t prioritizing a peace deal. The April 30 market saw the sharpest drop, now at
Why it matters
The term structure shows traders expect a potential catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 23-point jump in odds across those two deadlines. But current odds reflect skepticism about a deal being reached soon. The largest single price move was a 5-point drop in the May 31 market, suggesting traders reacted strongly to the retweet.
Actual USDC traded is $852,860 across all sub-markets, with the largest order book depth at $30,914 required to move prices 5 points in the April 30 market. The market is relatively thick but still responded sharply to Trump’s social media activity.
What to watch
For traders, this looks like a genuine shift rather than noise. The retweet implies Trump believes he has leverage without a deal, which could push odds lower unless there’s a diplomatic breakthrough. Buying YES at
Watch for formal statements from Trump or the White House that could contradict or reinforce this retweet, and any developments from the Islamabad talks involving Pakistani mediation.
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