Western anti-war protests muted amid Iran’s escalating conflict

Operation Epic Fury’s impact on Iran grows while anti-war protests in the West stay subdued. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 sit at 3.9% YES, down from 6% a week ago.

Western anti-war protests haven’t gained momentum despite the escalating conflict. The muted response contrasts with prior protests over Gaza and Ukraine, possibly due to fatigue and disillusionment. The Iranian regime fall market trades at $5,125 in daily USDC volume, with $21,504 required to shift odds by 5 points.

The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 is at 4.5¢, down from 6% just a day ago. The December 31 market for his entry sits higher at 12.5% YES, meaning traders expect any regime change to play out over months, not weeks.

The absence of large Western protest movements doesn’t necessarily reflect conditions inside Iran, where the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and ongoing military conflict have increased instability. But without visible Western pressure, diplomatic dynamics may shift slower than anticipated. At 4.5¢, a YES share for Pahlavi’s entry by June 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 22.2x return. That pricing reflects deep skepticism about rapid regime transitions even with high-profile military actions underway.

Traders should watch for internal fractures within the Iranian government: defections, public statements from figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, or signs of a power vacuum. Any of these could move these markets sharply.

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